Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop on July 24, falling to $29,000. This decline indicates that bears are attempting to take control of the market. Short-term bulls likely decided to secure their profits, while aggressive bears initiated short positions. However, despite the current bearish outlook, long-term investors remain unfazed and continue to hold onto their positions. Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Supply has reached a new high of 14.52 million Bitcoin, equivalent to 75% of the circulating supply.
While the cryptocurrency market has weakened in the short term, the United States equities market remains strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen ten consecutive days of gains, marking its longest streak since 2017. However, this week could bring changes with the release of key earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision on July 26. The decision by the Federal Reserve could also impact the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which is currently in the process of recovering. Considering these factors, it raises questions about whether lower Bitcoin prices and select altcoins will attract buyers, and to what extent the strength in the U.S. equities market will limit downside movements in the cryptocurrency market.
Analyzing the S&P 500 Index, it can be seen that although there was a downturn from 4,578 on July 19, the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that buyers are still confident in the continuation of the uptrend. The presence of the upsloping 20-day exponential moving average and the overbought relative strength index further support the idea that bulls are in control. If the price rebounds from the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that buyers are still interested at lower levels, potentially leading to a break above 4,578 and a subsequent rally to 4,650 and 4,800. However, if the price falls below the 20-day EMA, it could open the door for further decline towards the 50-day simple moving average at 4,336.
Moving on to the U.S. dollar index, it can be observed that the price has risen above the breakdown level of 100.82, suggesting that the previous breakdown may have been a bear trap. The price is currently at an important level, the 20-day EMA, which will be crucial to watch. If the price turns down sharply and falls below 99.57, the downtrend is likely to continue, possibly leading to a drop to 97.50. Conversely, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that the bulls are back in control. This could result in a climb towards the 50-day SMA at 102.66 and the downtrend line.
Shifting focus to Bitcoin, it is evident that the bulls managed to push the price above the 20-day EMA on July 23. However, strong selling pressure at higher levels is reflected in the long wick on the candlestick. On July 24, the price dropped below the strong support level at $29,500 that had been holding for several days. Currently, the BTC/USDT pair is at the crucial 50-day SMA support level at $29,021. If the price manages to rebound from this level and rise above the 20-day EMA, it would suggest that the previous break may have been a bear trap, potentially leading to a rally to $31,000. On the other hand, if the price continues to decline and falls below the 50-day SMA, it would indicate that the bulls have lost control, potentially resulting in a slump to $27,500 and later $26,000.
Moving onto Ether (ETH), the price bounced off the 50-day SMA on July 23, and attempts by the bulls to push the price above the 20-day EMA were unsuccessful. The bears are now attempting to sustain the price below the 50-day SMA, which could lead to a deeper correction towards $1,700. Such a decline would suggest that the pair may remain within the $1,626 to $2,000 range for an extended period, with volatile and unpredictable price action. However, if the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA and rises above the 20-day EMA, it would indicate strong buying at lower levels, potentially resulting in a rally to $2,000. The next significant move is likely to occur with a break above $2,000 or below $1,626.
Turning attention to XRP, it can be seen that after failing to sustain above $0.83 on July 19 and 20, the price has turned downwards towards the 20-day EMA. In order to maintain the uptrend, the bulls must protect the 20-day EMA. If the price rebounds from this level, the XRP/USDT pair may experience a range-bound market in the near term, with $0.66 serving as support and $0.86 as resistance. A break and close above $0.86 would indicate strength and potentially lead to further gains. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA would suggest that the bulls are exiting the market, attracting additional selling pressure and potentially causing the pair to drop to the breakout level of $0.56.
In the case of BNB, the inability of the bulls to push the price above the 20-day EMA has resulted in heavy selling by the bears, leading to a potential breakdown below the support of the symmetrical triangle pattern. A successful breakdown would indicate that the bears have gained an advantage, potentially causing the BNB/USDT pair to drop to the critical support level at $220. This level is likely to attract strong buying interest by bulls, which could result in the pair remaining range-bound. Alternatively, the price may bounce off the support line of the triangle, resulting in the pair staying within the triangle pattern for a longer period. To signal a comeback, buyers will need to push the price above the triangle pattern.
Finally, analyzing Cardano (ADA), it is evident that the 20-day EMA has caused a tough battle between bulls and bears. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint indicate uncertainty, with no clear advantage for either side. If the price falls below $0.30, the bears would gain an advantage, potentially causing a decline to the uptrend line. On the other hand, a break above $0.33 would signal the return of the bulls and could lead to a rise towards the July 14 intraday high of $0.38. However, the bears are expected to defend this level vigorously.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin and select altcoins have experienced recent downturns, long-term investors remain confident in the market. U.S. equities markets continue to perform well, although upcoming earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision could bring changes. The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. dollar index are both at important levels, with potential outcomes ranging from further gains to a resumption of downtrends. Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, BNB, and Cardano are all facing critical support and resistance levels that will determine future price movements. Traders and investors will need to monitor these key levels and market developments to make informed decisions.